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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.