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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."